Climate Change-Induced Water Disaster and Participatory Information
System for Vulnerability Reduction in North Central Vietnam (CPIS)

RESULTS FOR WORK PACKAGES:

WP1: Data Inventory

This work package is to collect data and documents from all existing sources which are available or can be exploited in the NHQ provinces. The first action to conduct is to assess partner and beneficiary needs in information and/or data.

For those who work in climate change modelling and impact assessment, the time series of meteo-hydrological data are needed for the whole coastal zone of NHQ. The cartographic data including topographic map at district and commune scale (assuming 1:25000 and 1:10000 and larger), thematic maps (soil, land use, irrigation etc.), statistic data on natural resources and socio-economic conditions of district and commune level are to be collected during the data inventory stage.

Data collection should be based on participatory approach and local field studies. A basic survey, performed in combination with a vulnerability study, may provide both first-hand knowledge and a broad access to local communities for further in-depth interviewing and village-level participatory assessments. Socio-economic baseline data and indigenous knowledge gathering are important objectives of the questionnaire survey in the pilot research sites during data the inventory stage. These data and documents will be standardized, quality controlled and gathered to form part of the database to be used province-wide by PIS.

Data inventory has preliminarily collected. Maps and statistic documents have been uploaded to projects ftp server that is available for all members through authorized access. All maps and spatial data are standardized that works of all WPs will be carried out basing on those standardized data. Data collected by this WP include:

• Meteorological data in the period of 1961-2010
• Long time series of hydrological sea level data
• Vertical sections of Rivers in study areas
• Vertical sections of irrigation systems in study areas
• Topographical maps at 1:50.000
• Land-use maps and land-use planning towards 2020
• Topographical maps at 1:2000 for selected communes
• Map of hydro-meteorological station network
• Flood mark materials of the historical floods in NHQ since 1980
• Satellite images at the time of the historical flooding events
• Technical design materials of the irrigation system and reservoirs
• Current condition of water management infrastructure in NHQ
• High resolution Climate Change and extreme event Scenarios
• Statistical data of selected communes from 2000-2010 (2012)
• Statistical yearbooks at commune level 2000-2010 (2012)
• Statistical yearbooks at provincial level 2000-2010 (2012)
• Socio-economic development plans of selected communes and all three provinces
• Land-use planning of selected communes
• Sectoral development plan (agriculture, Irrigation…)
• Reports on socio-economic developments
• Reports of social organizations from 2000-2010 (2012)
• Cadastral maps of selected communes
• Topographical maps at 1:25.000 or 1:10.000 
• Land-use maps of selected communes and three provinces  in 2000,2005,2010
• Irrigation maps
• Statistical data from socio-economic surveys

Click here for accessing and downloading data and materials (login name and password are requested)

For more information, please contact Mr. Nguyen Trung Kien (kien.nguyen@hus.edu.vn).

WP2: Indigenous Knowledge Integration

Indigenous, traditional or local knowledge is usually understood as the knowledge that people and communities have accumulated over generations of living in a particular environment, potentially contributing to securing them a stable livelihood in this native environment (Ellen et. al. 2000, Bicker et. al. 2002). This may include adapted technologies, practical know-how, culturally specific knowledge systems and beliefs, indicating a strong embedding in a given cultural and social context. These knowledges are considered important for a number of reasons in the context of CC: they may potentially contribute to global knowledge, they have a potential that is not fully utilized (UNEP 2008), and they have been are part of the daily lives of the rural poor for generation. There are few studies available on local knowledge in Vietnam in general, and in NHQ in particular. Researching the relevance of local knowledge for adaptation to changing natural and societal conditions in NHQ is obvious, since local communities here have coped with typhoons, WD and many other challenges for centuries. In terms of methodology, this WP will draw on the general survey combined with PRAs, community mapping, focus-groups and in-depth interviews, oral histories and local and historical sources. Further activities involve, 1) analysing, classifying and standardized the collected material into a PIS format; 2) creating a direct link between continued knowledge generation and knowledge dissemination in PIS aiming at the active participation of user groups; and 3) including and engaging both local and provincial authorities, for instance relating to resource and environmental management, agricultural extension service, cultural affairs and public information. Obviously, knowledge on the impacts of CC and WD as well as on vulnerabilities in agriculture and other aspects of local people's lives will be included. This is the link between WP2 and WP5 (Impact and vulnerability assessment).

Detailed Tasks:

• Literature review on IK of community in adaptation to CC-induced WD towards livelihoods.
• Field trip to collect fundamental data (physical, socio-economic) in the study areas. Design of survey toolkit and field survey training.
• Field trip to collect data on IK in adaption to CC-induced WD in study areas.
• Data analysis on IK of community in adaptation to CC-induced WD towards livelihoods.
• Construction of database on IK in adaptation to CC-induced WD towards livelihoods

WP3: Assessment of Climate Change and Extreme Climate Events

CC and WD are closely linked. As indicated in the IPCC fourth assessment report (IPCC 2007), CC is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events, thus the number of WD is expected to rise. Another way that CC can affect WD is through the increase in the vulnerability of communities to water hazards, particularly through ecosystem degradation and changes of livelihoods. In consequence, CC can reduce community’s abilities to cope with even the existing levels of water hazards. Therefore, this WP is one of the most important components of the project which aims to provide detailed information about CC and ECEs in the targeted areas. Outputs of this WP is the basic required inputs to other WP. The issues addressed by this WP include: 1) to assess CC, based on the data collected from the meteorological station network of Vietnam, with particular attention to extreme weather and climate events; 2) to build detailed future CC scenarios using dynamical downscaling approach; 3) to assess changes in ECEs which are related to WD. To solve 2) and 3), regional climate models will be applied. To eliminate uncertainties of future projected scenarios, the multi-model approach will be used.

Detailed Tasks:

• Analyzing and assessing CC and ECEs based on observed data from meteorological stations over North Central Vietnam
• Preparing the initial and boundary condition data (ICBC) from Global Climate Models (GCM) of the different green house gas emission scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway/ Special Report on Emission Scenarios (RCP/SRES) for Regional Climate Models (RCM)
• Projecting future climate conditions by dynamical downscaling using RCMs
• Post-processing, analyzing and building detailed CC and ECE scenarios for the study areas
• Assessing the uncertainty of the obtained CC scenarios
• Extracting the data for other WPs
• Data standardization to the WP6

WP4: Water Disaster Assessment and Analysis

With the preliminary field trip and analysis of the natural conditions in project area, the most frequent disasters causing serious damage to the local community are examined. These water related-disasters are addressed as flood and inundation in wet season and drought and salinity invasion in dry season. This WP aims to provide the detail information of the natural water hazards at local scale for the authority and community in vulnerable area in NHQ as well as for other WPs, which includes: 1) development of hydrological model for small catchment and hydraulic model for river network (one dimensional model) and flood plain (two-dimensional model) to assess the flood hazards in project area with high-resolution of output results focusing on the pilot sites; 2) development of the series of inundation maps (water level, water depth, peak velocity, duration,…) for the project area with different scale from the provincial level to commune levels; 3) development the water resource management model calculating the water balance in project area under CC scenarios and scenarios for socio-economic development; 4) development of advection/diffusion models for the river network in downstream area to simulate the state-of-the-art salinity intrusion and under sea level rise and CC scenarios; 5) analysis and assimilation of the results into GIS-based format; 6) to conduct the supplement survey to participatory verify and validate the final results.

Detailed Tasks:

• Collection of topographic data of the rivers over study areas (in cooperating with WP1)
• Collection of the hydrological and marine data over study areas (in cooperating with WP1)
• Data collection of irrigation system and historical flood marks (in cooperating with WP1)
• Modeling of historical significant flood events
• Modeling of saline intrusion caused by the past extreme droughts
• Modeling of flood and saline intrusion based on different CC scenarios
• Field survey to validate the model outputs
• Map construction of disaster risks for study areas
• Development of water balance calculation in accordance to CC and socio-economic development scenarios
• Supplemental field survey to validate, calibrate and verify the model outputs
• Construction of database to the WP6

WP5:   Impact and Vulnerability Assessment   

In this WP, vulnerability assessment will be performed in relation to the impact of CC-induced WD on agriculture and aquaculture.

The impact assessment will primarily be based on social analysis, drawing on existing frameworks: Poverty and Social Impact Assessment and Tools for Institutional and Political Analysis (World Bank 2003; 2007). The assessment will be based on secondary data from the three selected provinces combined with primary data collected from a household survey and qualitative techniques. The survey sample is planned to cover 10 percent (100-150 respondents) of the population in each of the communes. In addition, qualitative interviews with individuals and focus groups and various participatory techniques will be used to provide more detailed accounts of experiences and vulnerabilities in relation to flooding and droughts. Such mixed-method approach, as previously applied by the Danish team in Quang Nam province (e.g. Bruun and Casse, forthcoming) provides a fuller, more in-depth understanding of the impacts of WD and the underlying household vulnerabilities across social groups and temporal and spatial characteristics.

WP5 will encompass the following activities: 1) Assess the impact of climate-induced WD: (i) economically, across the agro-aquaculture production systems in the study sites; (ii) socio-economically, across different vulnerable groups; and (iii) spatially, across provinces/districts/ communes. 2) Analysis of the coping capacity of social groups, local communities and local institutions to WD. 3) Devise policy-conclusion to bolster resilience economically (for different production systems), socially (for vulnerable groups) and spatially (at different administrative levels). 4) Convert the above information into PIS, and draw on inputs of PIS to refine the impact assessment. In the final stages of the project, preparatory steps for an impact assessment of the PIS itself may be undertaken by collecting base-line data in three comparable communities without PIS implementation, so as to make feasible a full impact assessment of the PIS in a possible future second phase.

Detailed Tasks:

• Literature review of local vulnerability to CC and impact and vulnerability assessment
• Field survey to collect data for the impact and vulnerability assessment in agriculture and aquaculture sectors in the study areas
• Assessing the impacts of the CC-induced WD on agriculture and quaculture
• Analyzing of adaptive possibility of the stakeholders
• Analyzing of adaptive possibility of the decision makers
• Proposing the solutions for socio-economic development planning and land use planning integrated new rural development program.
• Proposing the solutions enhancing adaptation and mainstream adaptation in to local plans
• Proposing the adaptive models (household level)

WP6: GIS-based Participatory Information System Development

The Information System must provide three main functions: (i) storage of various data; (ii) data analysis; and (iii) information communication. It must also provide a mechanism for multi stakeholders to participate in the creation and refinement of the information. The input data can be of various formats, such as quantitative data or “indigenous knowledge” data obtained from the communities. It can be in the format of photos, videos, drawings, satellite images, documents, forecasts among others. This large amount of data is then digitalized, standardized, spatialized and integrated into GIS-based Knowledge Base. The knowledge base can be accessed by web browsers (on PCs or Mobile devices) via the Internet. The Website must be designed to provide different access levels for scientists, local policy/decision makers and communities. It should have a user-friendly interface, a flexible mechanism for users to interact and send their feedbacks. Via iterative refinement process (data analysis by scientists, information verification and feedbacks from the users), the information system will be getting more and more enriched. Scientists can also use applications on local area network to produce optical discs, maps and books to send to communities that have limit access to the Internet, especially when a disaster occurs. The involvement of local communities and authorities in the development of the GIS-based PIS is vital in order to: 1) share the indigenous knowledge in terms of agricultural and aquacultural production; 2) identify and finalize the spatial data of WD, CC as well as the effects of these events by using thematic maps (community mapping); 3) use the data (input and output) by interacting the website via internet.

Detailed Tasks:

• Revision of materials from other WPs, including various data types, documentations, photograph, video, maps, etc
• Standardization of base maps
• Reformat and standardization of outputs from other WPs to create inputs to GPIS
• Web-based GPIS design and construction
• Data integration to GPIS
• System testing and bug fixing
• System documentation
• User trainings

WP7: Training and Staff Exchange

The purpose of this activity is to enhance both the knowledge and skills of Vietnamese scientists, local authorities and communities in the field of CC, including physical science and adaptation. The training is organized with the following formats: 1) one young Vietnamese from HUS will be enrolled for Master degree education in a regional graduation centers (AIT in Bangkok or NUS in Singapore); 2) three PhD and four Master students will be involved directly in the project research activities and utilize the data, information and results for their studies and dissertation as well as the way of on-job training; 3) the short-term internship of at least one month duration will be organized for 4-6 junior and senior researchers from Vietnam to Danish, Japanese and/or Australian institutions; 4) the training workshops of 7-10 days in each province of NHQ will be organized for local authorities and communities; and 5) researchers from RUC will visit Vietnam to co-conduct research and field studies and participate in conferences, workshops and training activities.

Three MSc and Two PhD students was screening and working in the project

WP8: Provision Of Equipment

In order to store and share the database and all of the project’s outputs the project will equip the non-stop server system connecting to the Internet, where all participants and local people can access to download and upload the necessary data, material and documents. To reinforce the computational capacity for project office and local community as end-users, some PC, laptops will be equipped. For the field studies during three years of implementation the cameras and handy-cams are also needed.

WP9: Dissemination

Dissemination is a core activity of this project. It will promote the collaboration between Vietnamese and Danish scientists in the area of CC research through publications, seminars, international conferences, etc., so that the project outputs can be widely propagated. This activity will use several formats: establishing a web page, organizing local dissemination workshops, organizing scientific seminars and international conferences, producing scientific/academic publications.

Web Page:A Web Page will be designed and set up 1) to provide general information of the project; 2) to upload the needed data, materials, documentation for exchange between project members of both sides Vietnam and Denmark; 3) to post the results of project activities and events; and 4) to allow local people to access and feedback.

Seminars, workshops and conferences:  the project plans to organize: 1) Kick-off Seminar in the beginning of the 1^st year; 2) Mid Project Workshop by the end of the 2^sd year; and 3) Closing Workshop by the end of the 3^th year; 4) Three Training Workshops for local communities at the middle of the 2^sd year; and 5) International Conference in the 3^th quarter of the 3^th year.

Scientific publications:  Peer-reviewed journal articles and conference papers on CC, WD, impact and vulnerability assessments, community resilience, indigenous knowledge and PIS. These publications will be based on the results of the various project activities as stated above, and co-authorship between Vietnamese and Danish researchers will be promoted. Towards the end of the project period, conference papers and other contributions will be assembled into a jointly edited book.

Other activities:The project will provide facilities and accommodations for project members, especially young people, to participate in regional and international workshop and/or seminars dealing with CC, WD, PIS and other issues related to the project.